Skepticism in the time of Kool-Aid.
That’s what it feels like to doubt more than believe, to heed patience instead of dreaming up best-case scenarios.
But how else can one dispassionately view this Nebraska football program? Sure, it’s fun to tally up imaginary wins prior to real games being played.
‘There’s at least 5-6 easy ones, then maybe you get a couple you shouldn’t.’
You probably haven’t spoken those exact words about the Huskers’ 2022 schedule since November 26, 2021 – the day Iowa erased a 15-point deficit to cinch NU’s 3-9 record – but you’ve probably said something similar.
I know I have. Actually, I’ve said that for five off-seasons now.
- 2018: Frost just went undefeated! Brought the entire staff with him from Orlando! Check out his new, handpicked quarterback! Even if he gets hurt, Andrew Bunch can handle Troy!
- 2019: I know they started 0-6 last year…but did you see the way they finished the season?! Don’t worry; their kicking game will be just fine! That Indiana-Purdue stretch between bye weeks will be a nice breather!
- 2020: This team fought so hard just to get to have a season! The players have been training longer than any Big Ten team! No way they get worn down in a shortened season!
- 2021: Even if the offense struggles, all those sixth year Blackshirts will offset it! Got the best kicker in the conference, special teams won’t kill ‘em! Three wins – in the Big Ten West – is the floor!
- 2022: Emphasis on special teams is worth a couple wins! So much talent from the transfer portal! Great coaching hires! All this newness will work so well so quickly!
In lieu of evidence, I have done what anyone who follows the Huskers does. I compared the Nebraska football BRAND to other schools’ brands.
Take this 2022 schedule, for instance. Northwestern, Indiana, Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois. Anyone old enough to remember the 90s can recall a time when the program operated at such a level that meant easy wins versus outmatched opponents.
Those days are GONE.
Everyone in the Big Ten cares about football. A lot. Certainly more than half of the Big 8 did back in the 80s. It’s more competitive today. Recruiting, facilities, you name it.
As that changed, Nebraska backslid. The aura of Nebraska football’s invincibility started to evaporate somewhere between 62-36 and 7-7.
All of a sudden, Nebraska couldn’t count on those blowouts that built depth since all the backups got to play, sustaining the program for decades. Coaching turnover, a conference move, more turnover. No consistency. Rinse, repeat.
In 2022, you play the schedule game at your own risk. Nebraska’s brand got them into the Big Ten, gets them on TV, and earns them a recruiting win here and there. It can also work against them on the field if fans and media’s disrespect for lesser brands bleeds into the locker room.
While Nebraska’s brand is tops in the Big Ten West historically, its Frost era play on the field is middling at best, lower-tier at worst.
- Four losing seasons
- No more than three conference wins each season
- O-fer against Iowa (0-4) and Wisconsin (0-3)
- 1-3 against both Minnesota and Purdue
- 2-2 against both Northwestern and Illinois
- .500 against non-Ohio State B1G East teams
- Not a single three-game win streak
- Not a single victory after a bye week (0-5)
Yes, there are certainly new variables in the equation now. Trev Alberts has had over a year to get acclimated. Half the staff is new. Mark Whipple will call plays instead of Frost. Special teams has a full-time assistant’s full-time attention. 15 Division 1 transfers, two-thirds of whom are likely on the two-deep.
Were changes warranted – perhaps mandated? – after the worst Husker football season since the Eisenhower administration? Oh yes they were.
Now the tricky part: with change comes transition, which is typically not easy.
The way you were used to doing things is gone. That familiar face and voice has been replaced. If you were next in line for a starting job, here comes a highly-touted transfer.
Frost has admitted sadness over handing offensive play-calling to Whipple. Only Sean Beckton retained an offensive assistant role from 2021. Perhaps these guys can mesh quickly, but egos can clash.
New QB, new receivers, new pass scheme. Can’t stumble out of the gates, though, so they all better be on the same page.
A porous offensive line lost its best player, and many believe the next best is the one still working back from serious injury and has started only twice.
Kicking and punting is kicking and punting. Surely there will be no adverse reaction to doing it in front of larger crowds.
Chinander earned some serious respect for his 2021 Blackshirts. Go prove it again but replace half your starters.
ALL of these changes – firings and hirings, transfers, new leaders – have to go well in order for Nebraska to win.
At this point, Scott Frost’s tenure as head Husker is a late-stage game of Jenga. If any one of these blocks gets popped out, there’s a decent chance it all crashes down.
To be sure, Nebraska is not unique for having any one of these elements. Changes like these happen all the time in college football.
Just don’t let Frost off the hook!
With four straight losing seasons, there is no benefit of the doubt. If Frost refers to any of this change as an excuse for poor performance, it is still his fault that change was necessary in the first place.
Few will let him off the hook now. Trev Alberts would see through a defense like that, and his judgment matters most.
While college football has changed quite a bit over the years, coaches who struggle to win rarely figure it out in time. 79 coaches in the past 50 years have started their fifth season without a winning record in the previous four; just 22% of them won at least six games in year five. Not one won nine games.
So what then? How should we view the season on the horizon? Don’t let yourself assume anything with Nebraska football in 2022. Based on the depth of the hole they have dug, it will be a struggle every step of the way.
That doesn’t mean a bowl game is impossible, either.
Does it increase NU’s chances to win facing Indiana and Rutgers from the East instead of Michigan State and Ohio State? Maybe! But Tom Allen and Greg Schiano have better results to show than Frost over their careers.
Is there a lack of superstar opposing QBs? Sure! On the other hand, Art Sitkowski, Payton Thorne, and Alex Padilla-slash-Spencer Petras managed to defeat Nebraska last year.
Could things click to the tune of seven or eight wins? Absolutely! Just understand that would be an extreme outlier.
Has this program been on the verge of a major breakthrough under Frost all along, and all they need is a little early season confidence to realize their potential? It’s possible!
Look, I firmly believe there is an alternate universe where the Akron game doesn’t get lightning’d out, Frost starts off with a bang instead of 0-6, and the confidence builds and carries the program back to the upper crust of college football.
That did not happen in our universe. We have to live in this reality.
Here, Nebraska needs more than a brand to win games.