University of Nebraska–Lincoln climatologists believe this warm, dry weather trend will likely continue for the next several months — which means this winter may go on the books as one of the mildest the state has ever seen.
Martha Shulski, Nebraska state climatologist and professor in the School of Natural Resources, said Nebraska is typically drier this time of year, as snowfall doesn’t always add up to much precipitation, but the past five months of fall and winter have been unusual. Nebraska is on the dividing line of the current La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings wetter, cooler weather to the north and drier, warmer weather to the south.
“Nebraska doesn’t have extremely strong tendencies with La Niña,” she said. “It depends on the route that the storm tracks take, and this winter, we’ve certainly been in the warm and dry sector of this pattern.”
Schulski says fall was dry and December was the warmest on record. This dry, warm weather is causing a problem that could hit agriculture producers as well as homeowners. Reports show 91.2% of the state is in some form of drought compared to 72% the week before with 14.09% in severe drought. That according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.
National Drought Mitigation Center Climatologist Brian Fuchs says this is the driest Nebraska has been in nearly a decade. “Looking at the data, 2013, 2014 was the last time we saw a drought like this in the state,” Fuchs said. “We’d been in a fairly good period of time where drought wasn’t an issue. Going into the spring right now, with as dry as it’s been in the fall and now winter, this drought isn’t going to be alleviated any time soon.”
Drought conditions are a concern. With spring planting season on the horizon, Fuchs said many producers and resource managers are likely making decisions based on current drought conditions. They may switch the type of crops planted or prepare for a heavy irrigation season as soil moisture declines.
“That moisture is kind of a bank account for producers that their crops can tap into in periods where we don’t have rain, but also to establish the crop after planting,” Fuchs said. “The last few years, we haven’t had a lot of irrigation because we’ve had timely rains. This year, I think water providers for irrigation districts are probably going to need to be ready to push out that water that irrigators are going to be using.
Fuchs says dry conditions could also start impacting cattle producers due to dry pasture land and grazing conditions. Producers will have to look at hay reserves as well as purchasing food on the open market. That could become expensive for them. Cattle numbers appear to be down across the country, according to Fuchs.
But since it is Nebraska, the weather patterns could change tomorrow, Fuchs said, and he’s hoping that turns out to be true.
“I don’t want to be all doom and gloom,” he said. “We can go into spring and we can have a change in our weather pattern and have adequate moisture, and we could see conditions improve. Unfortunately, we just aren’t seeing too much of that right now in the longer-term outlooks.”