Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator rose by 1.29 percent in January according to the most recent report from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. The indicator is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future.
“The leading indicator has been mixed in recent months, declining in some months but rising in others,” says economist Dr. Eric Thompson, director of UNL’s Bureau of Business Research. “This pattern suggests slow growth in state economy during the first half of 2023.”
The six components of Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator include business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts, initial claims for unemployment insurance and the value of the U.S. dollar and manufacturing hours worked.
Thompson says most components of the leading indicator improved during January. “There has been sustained growth in Nebraska manufacturing, given its ties to food markets and agriculture.”
The value of the U.S. dollar also declined in January for the third consecutive month. “A declining dollar improves the position of manufacturers, agricultural producers and other Nebraska businesses that compete in international markets,” Thompson says.
Given areas of strength in the state economy, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell in Nebraska during the month. Airline passenger counts and building permits for single-family homes also grew in January. “These improvements, however, primarily reflect a rebound from a weak December rather than a sustained expansion.”
The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website, https://bbr.unl.edu