Rohr’s Four: Four reactions, impressions, reflections, concerns and questions after Nebraska’s 30-27 loss to No. 21 Michigan.
1-Your weaknesses travel
One of the top questions in my mind after the two blowout wins over Akron and Houston Christian was: what from these games will transfer to the Michigan game, or any of the Big Ten games? It’s tough to say what positives will carry over from those games, but it’s clear that the weaknesses that showed up in those games transferred fairly neatly to the Michigan game. Even in the Akron and Houston Christian games, the Cornhuskers struggled with short-yardage situations on offense and defensive line play in general.
The short-yardage weakness showed up on the first drive of the game. After jaunting from the NU 25 to the UM seven on seven plays, Nebraska faced second-and-three. Dylan Raiola tried to find Jacory Barney, Jr., on a fade pattern, but the pass fell incomplete. On third down, Emmett Johnson was stoned at the line of scrimmage for a one-yard gain. Then on fourth-and-goal at the two, Raiola connected with Luke Lindenmeyer, but Lindenmeyer gained just one yard. The drive died at the five. Nebraska’s offense crossed into the red zone four times, scoring a touchdown just once. The Huskers’ short-yardage offense had its problems against Akron and HCU, too, two teams that Nebraska should have been able to move around.
The offensive line, while decent, isn’t strong enough to re-draw the line of scrimmage down the field. Emmett Johnson, while bulked up, is still not a power runner, and no second running back has emerged. Kwinten Ives is the most likely candidate, he hasn’t wrangled the job yet, and he’s still not the 230-, 240-pound bruiser along the lines of Dante Dowdell and Imani Cross. The Huskers’ offense is very efficient between the 20s, but when the space tightens, they have a tough time moving the ball.
While the short-yardage problem can be mitigated some by better execution and improving playcalling, I worry about Nebraska’s ability to solve its other major issue: struggling defensive line play.
It’s worth noting that Michigan did the bulk of its damage on three big run plays. The Wolverines gained 166 yards on the three touchdown runs. Still, the other 30 carries averaged four yards an attempt, which will keep an offense on schedule and moving. When Nebraska badly needed to get off the field in the fourth quarter, Michigan churned away, picking up a third-and-five, third-and-nine and third-and-10, usually breaking a tackle or two along the way. But they don’t have that head of steam if things are clogged up at the line of scrimmage. Against a freshman quarterback, the Huskers could muster just one sack.
For the season, Nebraska has totaled just six sacks, just three by defensive linemen. The Huskers have 24 tackles for loss, just 5.5 by defensive linemen. Nebraska lost all three starting defensive linemen from last year’s defense, which ranked 17th in the NCAA in scoring defense and 18th in total defense. So far, the Huskers have had trouble generating a pass rush and slowing down opponent running games. And unfortunately, that’s red meat for the rest of the Big Ten. Nebraska has the off week to settle those big issues before moving into the meat of the conference schedule.
2-Take the points!
It has become en vogue to roll the dice and go for it on fourth down, whether at the college or pro level. Analytics have dissected each situation for spot on the field and down and distance, computing the possible impact of going for a fourth down, punting, or kicking. I generally welcome greater science behind decision making, and to deny the value of analytics at this point in sports history is like saying the wheel was a bad idea.
Matt Rhule was asked about going for it on fourth-and-two from the six, and reiterated that the analytics clearly said to go for it. Fair enough. But one of the criticisms of analytics-based decision making is that it doesn’t properly take into account the specific situation of the game and team. It’s the first drive of the game, with more than one yard to go. The field goal is about as sure a gimme as can be. Despite the 57 total points scored in the game, Big Ten games tend to be low-scoring environments. And, as we mentioned earlier, the Huskers have had a tough time in short-yardage situations, especially in the red zone.
I’m not gonna say that it automatically guarantees that Nebraska ties the game. The butterfly effect of points on the first drive is tough to figure. But three points are three points. Remember when you were chasing three? And you would have had something that you never had in the resulting game: A lead. Maybe it puts more pressure on a freshman QB, maybe it doesn’t. But at the very least, you have three points. You give the offense a little confidence moving forward. Plus, with Nebraska’s difficulty in moving the ball in tight spaces, how likely was it that the Huskers pick up that first down?
Until Nebraska proves it can pick up that two yards highly reliably, just take the points.
3-Blindsided
It was not a banner day for either Nebraska’s offensive and defensive line. The defensive line’s struggles were detailed earlier. But it was an especially tough day for the Huskers’ O-Line. Raiola was sacked seven times and hurried two more. If Nebraska can’t run the ball (and at roughly three yards a carry, even adjusting rushing-yardage totals to not factor in sacks), Raiola needs the time to drop back and read the defense and find the open man. The Huskers have good weapons at all the skill positions. They can’t all be double covered. But it takes time to figure out who has popped open, and Raiola flat out didn’t have a chance to find him.
Nebraska had returning starters at both offensive tackle spots, and plenty of experience across the line. Gunnar Gottula is only a sophomore, but he started all of last season. Teddy Prochazka has battled injuries throughout his Husker career, but has worked back as a senior. And yet, there were times that Nebraska struggled to even keep the four-man pass rush out of the backfield.
Michigan definitely has top-half Big Ten talent, and probably better than that, so it will be tough for the rest of Nebraska’s Big Ten schedule to replicate the Wolverines’ defensive ends’ success. But a blueprint is now out there on how to sidetrack this offense. And until NU’s line shows it can protect Raiola and open up holes to pick up short yardage first downs, it will be tough for this team to score as much as it needs to.
4-The sky is not falling!
And yet. Yes, Nebraska got a Hail Mary, which it was fortunate to get both because of the usually low percentages around the half-ending prayer into the end zone and because Michigan could’ve managed the clock better to ensure that they would get the ball back. Yes, this is not the JJ McCarthy/Jim Harbaugh/Connor Stallions Michigan national championship team. But, if the Huskers merely try and make the short field goal on drive one, and if Cunanan makes the 44-yard field goal on the second possession, that’s enough to win the game. Nebraska ran more plays than the Wolverines, 72-56, despite Michigan’s much more efficient running game. The Huskers got a takeaway, but also gave one up. Even the onside kick was an awfully good attempt.
It’s maddening to try and calm the nerves of Nebraska fans that have waited nearly a decade and 28 attempts to knock off a top 25 team, let alone get that win at home, against a college football blueblood to remain undefeated. Husker fans are rightly disappointed and frustrated that another good chance for Nebraska to announce its return to the national stage came up just short. And yet, a lot went right for Nebraska, beyond just the lucky stuff. Raiola overcame nearly constant pressure to throw for 308 yards and three touchdowns. Barney is a legitimate star, a big play in the making every time he touched the ball. Much bally-hooed punter Archie Wilson was equal to the hype, hitting four punts for an average of 49.2 yards while not giving up any return yardage.
Nebraska was within a field goal, again, of at least tying this game, and by taking the points drive one and making a make-able field goal drive two, they could’ve had the points to win the game (again, it’s tough to tell if that’s how things would’ve unfolded, but it’s at least a thought experiment).
The point is: There’s eight games to go, and a lot right about this team. Weak competition may have overheated hopes about this bunch, to where talk was starting about the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten Championship Game. I was guilty of doing that. This team isn’t quite ready for that. But there has been progress made by this program. This team is better than last year’s, and should finish with a better record. In a long-term rebuilding project as Nebraska Football is, progress, however small, is a good thing. It would’ve accelerated the timetable substantially to beat the Wolverines Saturday. But plenty remains out there within this team’s reach, if they’re able to shore up the lines.