Talent sometimes overwhelms, but more important are confidence, consistency, and coaching – and those factors favor the Huskers.
A quarter of the way through the 2025 football season, there is little that we know for certain. Dylan Raiola is accurate and confident – 77% completion, 8.8 yards per attempt, and 276 passing yards per game – and he leads an offense capable of big plays. The secondary is the strength of the Blackshirts, allowing a mere 66 passing yards per game – first nationally – while the front seven has room to grow and improve.
But much of this team’s story is yet to be written. Heck, by the time we hit late November, I’m willing to bet most folks won’t remember much about Nebraska’s 59-7 domination over Houston Christian, or their 68-0 demolition of Akron.
As much as the Cincinnati outcome really did matter to the psyche of the fan base – and probably the team – it feels like the season begins in earnest on Saturday against Michigan.
Brand name.
Big Ten bully.
2023 National Champions*.
Despite a down 2024 season and an early loss this September, the Wolverines are ranked 20th and 21st this week in the AP and Coaches’ polls, respectively. Nebraska is receiving votes, the equivalent of 34th and 35th. If the Huskers defeat Michigan, it would be their first victory over a ranked team since a 35-32 win over #22 Oregon in Lincoln in September 2016. Yes, that’s right, no ranked wins since the Obama administration.
I set all of that up only to tell you it doesn’t matter. Not the amount of time NU has spent in the college football wilderness, not the winged helmets, not the little number Michigan will have in front of their name on the scorebug.
All that matters is what’s in between the Huskers’ ears. It’s all mental.
At most positions, Michigan will have the edge in talent. Comparing recent NFL draft results would suggest that it’s not close; they’ve had at least one first round pick for seven consecutive years, had seven draft picks last April, and had 13 draftees from their title-winning 2023 squad, including *seven* day-one or day-two selections. Nebraska last had a first-rounder in Prince Amukamara way back in 2011, only had seven total draftees over the last four years, and boast only Cam Jurgens and Cam Taylor-Britt as day-two picks since 2016. But we all know that Nebraska’s lost plenty of games over the past decade to teams they’ve been objectively better than. Talent doesn’t always carry the day. (Don’t discount Rhule’s draft track record at Temple and Baylor. This 2025 roster likely has some future pros.)
Homefield advantage is nice, and I know Matt Rhule won’t turn it down. However, it didn’t matter when NU came thisclose against 9th-ranked Michigan in 2021. Nebraska lost 32-29 in front of an electric Memorial Stadium after briefly holding a 4th-quarter lead. The road team can get it done same as the home team.
Wins over Akron and Houston Christian were one-sided and heavy on impressive statistics. Smoking overmatched opponents does not guarantee future results, no matter the 700+ yards or zero punts or whatever gaudy numbers NU put up.
Talent, venue, stats – all of that can matter in the long run. First, though, Matt Rhule must get this program prepared mentally before the physical can follow.
The good news is, I think he’s getting there.
Rhule’s media interactions are typically excellent, filled with one-liners, a little philosophy (life or football), and some X’s and O’s. Those sessions have also offered a fuller picture of how he’s been chipping away at pessimism and building up belief in his players. He’s reminded them that their good practice habits don’t matter if they don’t carry over into games. Or that even 30-point halftime leads may not be up to “the standard.” He highlights success stories, from walk-on John Bullock to prized recruit Thomas Fidone. And he has gradually turned the team over to the players as his culture has taken hold.
In prior seasons, Nebraska had rotating game-by-game captains. This year, the players wanted to vote on season-long captains. So they did.
Three of those six captains – Raiola, safety Marques Buford, and guard Henry Lutovsky – accompanied Rhule to Las Vegas for Big Ten Media Days. They joked that their coach could hang back, they got this. That’s confidence in their offseason work.
Rhule appears to be confident that this third season in Lincoln is gonna go well, too. He has a weekly appearance on the Pat McAfee show, and he started his own podcast! (DeShaun Foster and Brent Pry didn’t have podcasts, now did they?)
Evaluating this Michigan matchup, Nebraska should feel confident. They played well in their lone power-4 game against Cincinnati and ran up the score when they should have on a couple cupcakes. This while the Wolverines have tasted defeat at Oklahoma, regardless of how you compare the Sooners to Cincy (OU is better).
Dylan Raiola’s experience and consistency should not be overlooked, either. He’s flourishing in Dana Holgorsen’s offense in his second season. His opposite number, Bryce Underwood, is a true freshman. Michigan’s passing prowess is severely lacking, ranking 83rd in the country at 209 yards per game. Nebraska is 5th nationally with 366 passing yards per game.
The coaching aspect of this matchup should also favor Nebraska – they will have a head coach at this game and Michigan won’t! I all seriousness, it can’t help in preparations and in-game situations to *not* have your program’s leader as a part of the team for a road trip to a hostile environment. Interim coach Biff Poggi does have head coaching experience, but Rhule certainly has the leg up here.
This has been trending in NU’s favor lately – Rhule’s third year and all that, plus Jim Harbaugh bolting for the NFL in 2024 to get ahead of the NCAA’s punishment for multiple violations. Now Sherrone Moore is still being punished for his role in the sign-stealing scandal at Michigan. Between Rhule’s recent coordinator hires on offense and special teams, plus his in-game decision-making that helped get the win over Cincinnati…advantage: Nebraska.
Gone are the days of saying “we’re close.” No more trying to win simply because players don’t want to see their coach so miserable anymore. This Husker program has been putting the pieces together – confidence, consistency, and coaching – and it may be time for a breakthrough.
If they’re mentally prepared, this one is theirs for the taking.