The race for U.S. Senate in Nebraska may not be a foregone conclusion for the state’s 12-year republican incumbent Deb Fischer, so says new polling data commissioned by her Independent challenger.
That challenger — Dan Osborn of Omaha, a U.S. Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard veteran, steamfitter, and former union leader — is currently tied 42-42% against Fischer, with 16% undecided, according to internal polling from his campaign.
Conducted by Impact Research and advised by republican firm Red Wave Strategy Group, the poll identified Nebraska as a “strongly Republican” constituency, with Republicans holding a 29-point advantage over democrats. But despite this underpinning, the poll shows Sen. Fischer may hold “weak standing,” with -2 popularity (40% Fav / 42% Unfav), and a majority of voters are open to supporting an Independent for US Senate (68%).
40% of polled likely voters said they would prefer “someone else” to re-electing Fischer (41%), and 75% of democrats indicated they would support Osborn.
A Tale of Two Polls
Internal polling from the Fischer campaign tells a different story.
Polling conducted by Torchlight Strategies, a conservative pollster, found Fischer up by 26 points in her bid for re-election, and Osborn coming in at less than 24%.
Fischer said in an official statement, she is committed “to earn each and every vote,” and believes she’s in her “strongest position yet for re-election.”
Both polls spoke with at least 500 likely voters and were conducted between July 8-11.
Underdog’s Statewide Understudy
During the summer months, Osborn has engaged in a “What Ales You?” statewide listening tour — enjoying a beer and lending an ear to voters from the state’s smaller towns like McCook and Chadron to it’s largest cities of Lincoln and Omaha.
Recovering from a brief bout with COVID-19 that forced him to reschedule a trip to Grand Island, Osborn spoke with KLIN News and said, “I just find people are relieved, excited, and full of hope for this campaign,” reacting to his new polling data.
“People tell me all the time, ‘I’m registered Republican, I have always voted Republican,’ but they find themselves down the middle. Not too extreme on the left or on the right,” said the Independent Senate candidate, validating his campaign’s impetus. “People are definitely frustrated, I think, with both parties catering to their extremes… and it’s kind of leaving everybody in the middle left out, and those people are starting to be more vocal about where they are.”
“That’s what’s been so exciting about running an independent grassroots campaign. I don’t have a party line automatically telling me how I’m supposed to feel or think on issues,” Osborn continued.
Of the issues he’s hearing about most from voters, the economy has been number one. “People are hurting. I’m one of them,” he said. Number two, according to Osborn, has been “price gouging by these multinational corporations.”
While working at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha for 20 years (during which he gain national attention for leading the 2021 workers strike), Osborn described how the food company announced a price hike of $0.20 to offset the rising price of shipping. As gas prices ebbed back down, Osborn said prices did not follow suit, “Instead, what they did was retrofit all of our packing equipment to run smaller bags, put it in smaller cartons, throw it in smaller cases, and sell it to you for the same price.” A modern phenomenon referred to as “shrinkflation.”
“It doesn’t matter to me if you’re conservative or democrat or independent. I want to work for the people of Nebraska. I’ve worked for a corporation for 20 years. I don’t want to do that anymore,” he said.
Osborn drew contrast with Fischer in terms of campaign financing, saying he will not accept any money from corporate donors, as opposed to Fischer who does accept contributions from corporate PAC’s (political action committees).
“I think they should all be wearing NASCAR jackets with patches of their sponsors so we know how they’re going to vote,” Osborn quipped. “I don’t want to be a part of that. I want to be a part of the solution in the form of campaign finance reform, ending things like Citizens United, because if we can get the money out of our politics, it won’t be such a breeding ground for corruption.”
“Labor President” Drops Out
Osborn aims to bring his working-class background to Washington during an unpredictable (and dare we say unprecedented) time, as President Joe Biden announced over the weekend that he would not seek re-election in 2024.
KLIN asked Osborn if he felt Biden had made the right call.
“I do,” he said simply. “I think he’s doing what he thinks is best for his party’s success. I would do the same thing if I was in his shoes to ensure the success of whoever I’m working with. That’s the way I see it.”
Osborn said “it’s yet to be seen” how Vice President Kamala Harris will fair as the democratic party’s hopeful nominee, but said he hopes to see Harris carry on Biden’s mantel as a supporter of labor.
“We can all have hope… My biggest concern is working families and making sure we all get a fair shake. Union or non-union, doesn’t matter to me. But I hope that Kamala will continue to support labor like Joe Biden has if she’s actually the pick for the nominee,” Osborn concluded.
With Nebraska Democrats failing to file an opponent for Fischer, Osborn remains the sole alternative to the state’s senior incumbent who was first elected to U.S. Senate in 2013.