The Mid-American Business Conditions Index fell slightly in November to 60.2 compared to October’s stronger 65.2. The Index ranges from 0 to 100 with 50 being growth neutral.
Creighton University Economist Dr. Ernie Goss says, “Creighton’s monthly survey results indicate the region is adding manufacturing activity at a positive pace, and that regional growth will remain solid. In terms of supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks, approximately one-half of supply managers expect delays to worsen with only one in four anticipating improvements”.
Those responding to the survey noted that transportation bottlenecks in trucking and rail were the prime factors accounting for supply chain disruptions. They next named a shortage of workers as the second most important factor producing supply disruptions and delays.
Unemployment remained significantly above growth neutral for November but dropped to 61.2 from 66.1 in October. Goss says, “We are still seeing reluctance to return to work. We have a lot of retirements. We have individuals leaving the work force. The employment front is still good but not back to pre-pandemic levels.” Nebraska’s seasonally adjusted manufacturing employment was down by 1,400 jobs, or 1.4% compared to its pre-pandemic level.
The wholesale inflation gauge for November declined to an elevated 92.9 from October’s 96.5. The survey is tracking the highest and most consistent inflationary pressure in more than a quarter of a century of conducting the survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports commodity prices are up about 22.6% over the last 12 months with fuels expanding by 57.5%.
Looking ahead six months, economic optimism climbed to a weak 46.2 from October’s 37.0, which was its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic in first quarter of 2020.